The Scenarionist - Where Deep Tech Meets Capital | Substack

Fusion “first-of-a-kind” licenses | Deep Tech Briefing 116

Weekly intelligence on Deep Tech: company milestones, market shifts, and macro forces reshaping outcomes, competitive position, capital allocation, and…

Jun 22 • The Scenarionist

Should we build a factory?

5 strategic steps for deciding what to build, what to outsource, and what to delay.

May 14 • The Scenarionist and Nicola Marchese, MD

25:12

Techno-Economic Modeling for Deep Tech Ventures

Framework for Assessing Risk, Viability & Scaling | Chris Burk, Techno-economics Specialist

Nov 26, 2024 • The Scenarionist

The Next $100B Deep Tech Market No One Is Talking About | The Scenarionist

Advanced Materials: The Quiet, Strong Revolution Redefining Entire Industries

Sep 13, 2025 • The Scenarionist

29:32

Advanced Materials from Lab to Commercialization: Strategy, Sales, and Adoption

Watch now | A chat with Steve van Zutphen, exited founder (Magpie Polymers)

Jun 19 • The Scenarionist and Nicola Marchese, MD

Deep Tech Lessons Learned

30 Exit Strategy Lessons Learned

from 100+ Deep Tech Founders and Investors.

May 7 • The Scenarionist and Nicola Marchese, MD

30 Execution Lessons Learned

from 100+ Deep Tech Founders and Investors.

Apr 2 • The Scenarionist and Nicola Marchese, MD

30 Venture Lessons to Build and Back Great Deep Tech Companies

From 50+ Global Deep Tech VCs, CVCs, and Experts.

Feb 6, 2025 • The Scenarionist and Nicola Marchese, MD

The Scenarionist - Where Deep Tech Meets Capital

The Scenarionist - Where Deep Tech Meets Capital

Actionable intelligence for Deep Tech founders, investors, and operators. Built by people bold enough to believe that the future isn’t something you predict—it’s a scenario you engineer.

Deep Tech Catalyst Podcast

29:32

Advanced Materials from Lab to Commercialization: Strategy, Sales, and Adoption

Watch now | A chat with Steve van Zutphen, exited founder (Magpie Polymers)

Jun 19 • The Scenarionist and Nicola Marchese, MD

25:30

Venturing into Batteries: Challenges, Manufacturing, and Scale

Watch now | A chat with Anil Achyuta, Partner @ Energy Impact Partners

Jun 12 • The Scenarionist and Nicola Marchese, MD

29:05

From Molecule to Exit: The Sirrus Journey

Watch now | A chat with Jeff Uhrig, former CEO of Sirrus (acquired by Nippon Shokubai)

Jun 5 • The Scenarionist and Nicola Marchese, MD

30:57

From Orbit to Venture Scale: Satellites, Startups, and Capital Efficiency | Deep Tech Catalyst

Watch now | A chat with Alan Yu, Senior Associate @ Space Capital

May 29 • The Scenarionist

Deep Tech Briefing

Fusion “first-of-a-kind” licenses | Deep Tech Briefing 116

Weekly intelligence on Deep Tech: company milestones, market shifts, and macro forces reshaping outcomes, competitive position, capital allocation, and…

Jun 22 • The Scenarionist

When On-Site Recovery Replaces Consumables, Who Captures the Value? | Deep Tech Briefing 115

Weekly intelligence on Deep Tech: company milestones, market shifts, and macro forces reshaping outcomes, competitive position, capital allocation, and…

Jun 15 • The Scenarionist

How Much Is It Worth to Own Matter Behavior Data? | Deep Tech Briefing 114

30+ company milestones across space, AI, energy, materials, robotics, quantum, and strategic infrastructure — plus 7 market-making shifts and 10 key…

Jun 8 • The Scenarionist

Capital Is Chasing Mach 1.21 | Deep Tech Briefing 113

30+ startup milestones across 7 strategic sectors, 5 market-making shifts, and 10 key data points shaping the week in deep tech.

Jun 1 • The Scenarionist

Fundraising & Diligence

How to Actually Price Deep Tech by Value

The choice that makes or breaks the return architecture.

Mar 12 • The Scenarionist and Nicola Marchese, MD

Underwriting Advanced Materials for AI Data Center Cooling | The Scenarionist

An analysis combining five case studies, thermoeconomics, and practical reasoning to navigate risk and build durable advantage

Feb 26 • The Scenarionist

Reverse Diligence: How Two Next-Gen Compute Players Challenge the GPU Monoculture with Photonic and Analog AI Chips

A reverse DD analysis of two real-world scale-ups on architectural moats, foundry dependence, and scaling non-GPU compute for latency- and…

Dec 11, 2025 • The Scenarionist

100 Episodes, 10 Powerful Questions: A Special Edition of Deep Tech Catalyst

Reaching this milestone felt like the right moment to do something simple but demanding: to distill what we’ve learned.

Nov 28, 2025 • The Scenarionist and Nicola Marchese, MD

When Markets Derisk, Materials Matter

How to identify the companies with real collateral, sticky demand, and strategic leverage when capital leaves narrative-driven markets.

Nov 4, 2025 • The Scenarionist

Advanced Materials

Underwriting Advanced Materials for AI Data Center Cooling | The Scenarionist

An analysis combining five case studies, thermoeconomics, and practical reasoning to navigate risk and build durable advantage

Feb 26 • The Scenarionist

Exits in Advanced Materials Startups | The Scenarionist

3 Case Studies on How Exits Were Strategically Engineered Behind the Scenes.

Nov 26, 2025 • The Scenarionist and Giulia Spano, PhD

When Markets Derisk, Materials Matter

How to identify the companies with real collateral, sticky demand, and strategic leverage when capital leaves narrative-driven markets.

Nov 4, 2025 • The Scenarionist

The Hidden Alpha in Harsh-Environment Electronics | The Scenarionist

The overlooked “picks and shovels” of space, geothermal, and nuclear systems. The path to outlier returns is simple: survive heat, vibration, and…

Oct 30, 2025 • The Scenarionist

The Next $100B Deep Tech Market No One Is Talking About | The Scenarionist

Advanced Materials: The Quiet, Strong Revolution Redefining Entire Industries

Sep 13, 2025 • The Scenarionist

If you back or build Deep Tech — this was built for you!

Scaling & Industrialization

What is your core competitive advantage?

5 strategic questions for deciding where to compete, what to prioritize, and what to build around.

Jun 18 • The Scenarionist and Nicola Marchese, MD

What Makes Deep Tech Teams Win

What Winning Teams Get Right. Where Teams Break. How to Spot Misalignment.

May 28 • The Scenarionist and Nicola Marchese, MD

Should we build a factory?

5 strategic steps for deciding what to build, what to outsource, and what to delay.

May 14 • The Scenarionist and Nicola Marchese, MD

Five Customer Discovery Models in Deep Tech

A case-based guide to discovering deep tech markets where adoption is more complex than demand.

Apr 16 • The Scenarionist

Manufacturing Moats: How Hard Infrastructure Becomes Defensive Tech | The Scenarionist

Steel + Silicon: The Return of Vertical Integration as a Venture Edge.

Dec 18, 2025 • The Scenarionist

Rumors

Beyond Carbon Capture: The Rise of CO2-to-Cement | Rumors

Four startups, one rumor: captured CO2 and mineral residues are entering the cement supply chain

May 21 • The Scenarionist

The race for a faster way to get critical mineral supply | Rumors

Four startups, four technical paths, one shared bet: the fastest way to add critical mineral supply may come from existing material flows and installed…

Mar 19 • The Scenarionist

Light-Driven Chemicals and the Quiet Revolution of Photon-Chemical Manufacturing | Rumors

Five Startups, One Rumor: New light‑powered reactions aid energy use, efficiency, feedstock risk, and margins in chemical manufacturing.

Nov 20, 2025 • The Scenarionist

The Optical Interconnect Rush: Powering the New AI Network Stack | Rumors

Six Startups, One Rumor. A new generation of photonic technologies is rewiring data‑center networks for the AI era—at light speed and with radical…

Oct 2, 2025 • The Scenarionist

Beyond Silicon, Beneath 4K – The Rise of Cryogenic Compute | Rumors

Five Startups, One Rumor. Startups are harnessing cryogenic electronics and thermodynamics to break scaling limits in AI and quantum — from cold chips…

Jul 31, 2025 • The Scenarionist

If you back or build Deep Tech — this was built for you!

Deep Tech Negotiation Playbook

The Deep Tech Negotiation Playbook: Bonus Appendix

Deep Tech Negotiation Worksheet, Scripts and Templates to handle even the toughest negotiation scenarios.

May 7, 2025 • The Scenarionist

The Deep Tech Negotiation Playbook | Chapter 4

Welcome to the Real Table.

May 6, 2025 • The Scenarionist

The Deep Tech Negotiation Playbook | Chapter 3

Master the Fundraising Tug of War Before It Masters You

Apr 3, 2025 • The Scenarionist

The Deep Tech Negotiation Playbook | Chapter 2

Master the Fundraising Tug of War Before It Masters You

Mar 20, 2025 • The Scenarionist

The Deep Tech Negotiation Playbook | Chapter 1

Master the Fundraising Tug of War Before It Masters You

Mar 5, 2025 • The Scenarionist

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